Monte Carlo forecast calculator
When will the remaining work be done? Paste how many work items your team finished each week, enter what is left, and this Monte Carlo forecast gives you a likely date and a safe date, with the odds. No estimates, no story points.
| Chance of being done | On or before |
|---|---|
| 50% (likely, a coin toss) | — |
| 85% (the date to commit to) | — |
| 95% (very safe) | — |
How to read it
- 50% is a coin toss: half of the simulated futures finish later. Fine for planning, not for a promise.
- 85% is the date most teams commit to: late in only about 1 future in 7.
- 95% is for dates that really cannot slip, such as a contract or a regulatory deadline.
Each bar of the chart is a number of weeks; the dark bars are the futures that finish on or before the 85% date.
Where to find the numbers in Jira
Count the work items moved to done each week, for the last 8 to 12 weeks: a JQL search such as project = ABC AND status changed to Done during (-7d, now()), with your own done status, repeated week by week, or the throughput of your board. Count what is left the same way: open work items in the release or epic.
What it does not know
- It assumes the next weeks look like the last ones. A holiday, a new team member or a change of process moves the dates.
- It counts work items, not their size. That works when items are of similar size; split the very big ones first.
- New work added along the way is not in the forecast. Run it again each week with the new numbers.
Method: bootstrap resampling of your weekly throughput, 10,000 simulated futures. Your numbers stay in your browser: nothing is sent anywhere. Related: Monte Carlo forecasting in Jira, how to forecast a Jira release date and the delivery forecast update template.